International Information Centre for Balkan Studies

Bosnian MP -Dodik likely to try to secede in a year or two

November 15, 2023

Milorad Dodik will announce a peaceful decision of Republika Srpska’s independence. I believe that he will do it in the coming period. He is planning to wake up one day in another administrative unit, and then it will be too late for many of us to do anything, said Zlatko Miletic, a delegate in Bosnia’s House of Peoples in an interview with N1, on Wednesday.

“I believe 99 percent that he will do it in the coming period. I believe this, based on all the indicators. I also warned the Troika before the formation of the [state] government. When I saw the paper – what the intentions of his party are in the state government, to work on derogating state institutions and authorities, his frequent visits to Putin, playing games with the citizens of BiH and the RS, making the RS citizens hostages of his politics to protect all those activities he was engaged in from ‘92 to the present. He has no other way out. He is just waiting for a signal from Russia and a favourable moment,” Miletic said.

He believes this will happen maybe in a year or two adding that nothing special would happen then. Maybe an incident or two, but it won't escalate into a conflict because “the international community would not allow it,” he said.

When asked what can and should politicians do to prevent the disintegration of Bosnia and Herzegovina Miletic said there are many measures and activities.

“Our border is as hollow as Swiss cheese. We lack border police officers, we have per every 25 kilometres. We had protests called ‘the border exists’ – between the entities, which is what Dodik is pushing, but that there is no border when it comes to BiH and its surroundings. We are in a big trap, and that is one of the problems with which everything is softened, he has been preparing for years and is preparing the euthanasia of BiH citizens. He is making unconstitutional moves, directly destroying the integrity of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, and Serbia. He called for creating a state union of Montenegro, Serbia and the RS and there were no consequences. Not to mention the denial of genocide, etc., he hasn’t been prosecuted, and it needed to be done five times so far,” Miletic told N1.

Miletic was then asked what would happen to Bosnia’s Federation entity, in case Dodik tried to secede. Would the Croat Democratic Union (HDZ BiH) demand a third entity?

“The disintegration of Bosnia and Herzegovina will not happen. There are people who are paid to stop such activities and believe me there are people who do their job professionally and would not allow it. Ultimately, even if there are not enough EUFOR forces, NATO forces will come to the rescue. It won't work like that. Ultimately, he will end up where he belonged a long time ago – in a prison in BiH. I doubt he'll try to escape,” Miletic pointed out, adding that nothing would happen to the RS entity because no one is doing anything to harm or attack the RS as an administrative unit.

Source:  https://n1info.ba/english/news/bosnian-mp-tells-n1-dodik-likely-to-try-to-secede-in-a-year-or-two/

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